12/1/24

Weekly Market Recap

Believe it or not, we only have one month left in 2024. On a year-to-date basis, 2024 has been an excellent year for investors across almost all asset classes. U.S. stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, are up 26.55%. Developed international stocks are up 6.65%, and emerging market stocks are up 8.47%. Both U.S. Small-Cap and Mid-Cap stocks have posted double-digit gains. Bonds, as measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index, have a total YTD return of 2.77%. While bonds may not look as impressive compared to stocks, that’s not bad considering they had nearly their worst year ever in 2022, with double-digit losses. Even gold has had a great year so far, up 28%. Consumer confidence is also on the rise. As measured by the Conference Board, consumer confidence increased by 1.9% from October to November. Additionally, expectations of a recession have drastically decreased. As of May 2023, 73% of respondents to the Consumer Confidence Survey thought a recession was likely in the next 12 months. As of today, only 63% of respondents expect a recession.

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart is very similar to last week’s. Last week, we looked at the year-end returns for the S&P 500 and the intra-year drops. This week, we are showing the same thing but for the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index instead of the S&P 500. A couple of things stand out. First, it’s very rare to have a negative year in bonds; that has only happened in 5 of the last 48 years. Another thing that stands out is that some volatility in bonds is normal. The red dots show the peak-to-trough intra-year drop for bonds. While these drops are not as extreme as those in stocks, bonds still fluctuate in price. The bottom line is that while bonds can experience some volatility, they tend to be much less volatile than stocks, and they can provide a ballast in portfolios when investors are looking to reduce risk.

Written by:

Ben Rones, CFA®

Senior Analyst at R&R Financial

Source:Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Returns are based on total return. Intra-year drops refers to the largest market drops from a peak to a trough during the year. For illustrative purposes only.Returns shown are calendar year returns from 1976 to 2023, over which time period the average annual return was 6.6%. Returns from 1976 to 1989 are calculated on a monthly basis; daily data are used afterward.

Guide to the Markets – U.S.Data are as of November 26, 2024.